Nothing is more difficult than guessing what a festival jury thinks. Compared to the Palme d’Or, predicting Oscar winners is a walk in the park. Never mind that we have been listening closely to famous critics and the whispers around the Croisette. The Guardian’s Peter Bradshaw is betting big on Todd Haynes’ Carol as the Palme d’Or winner, a drama that many of his colleagues feel plays more like a shoe-in for next year’s Hollywood prizes than Cannes. But most reviewers agree that the main award is down to a three-way race between the lesbian fifties story, Laszlo Nemes’ Son of Saul and the surprise favorite The Assassin by Hou Hsiao-Hsien. Although the Irish Times’ Paddy Power has the absurdist The Lobster as the odds-on favorite.
Also agreed upon is that the moving Amy Winehouse documentary Amy would have won something – anything! – if it had not played out of competition.
And then there are the films that should but did not: the highly anticipated Love by Gaspar Noé that could not live up to expectation, the dreadful Sea of Trees, the not quite-as-good-as-expected Youth by Paolo Sorrentino and the underwhelming period drama Marguerite & Julien. Interestingly it was the French entries that were mostly met with a cold shoulder by critics, from Emmanuelle Bercot’s opening night movie La Tête Haute to Maiwenn’s Mon Roi to a disappointing Jacques Audiard with Dheepan. More was expected from the master behind The Prophet and Rust and Bone. But back to possibles: the Grand Prix may go to the beloved The Assassin, the Director’s Prize to Laszlo Nemes for Son of Saul. Bradshaw has Matteo Garrone as the Jury Prize winner for Tale of Tales Zhao Tao for Mountains May Depart as Best Actress and Tim Roth for Best Actor in Chronic. No one else agrees with him, though. Cate Blanchett is a strong contender, for one, and Chronic drew very mixed acting reviews, although considering previous years, Cannes likes to give acting prizes to English speaking stars while the main award often goes to a foreigner.
The supporting awards could go to Olivia Colman for The Lobster and festival darling John Turturro for Nanni Moretti’s Mia Madre. The Lobster could also take home the prize for Best Screenplay (by Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymis Filippou). The biggest hickup in this predicting game? The last film shown in competition Saturday night is Macbeth, directed by Justin Kurzel and starring Michael Fassbender and Marion Cotillard. Never discount the bard from Stratford-upon-Avon to shake(speare) things up.
My bets? None. I have been wrong so many times at film festivals I have stopped making predictions. The jury members under joint chiefs Joel and Ethan Coen have their work cut out. Expect to hear tales of a very late night by the morning. Master of ceremonies Monsieur Christophe Lambert will announce the winners Sunday night at the Palais du Festival. Only one thing is certain: after the Heelgate brouhaha, no lady attending the closing night ceremony will be sent home for the flatness of her footwear.
Elisabeth Sereda