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The Oscar race is anyone’s guess – but Golden Globes remain the best predictor

Originally published March 6, 2023


Historically, winners of the Golden Globe Awards have long been an essential precursor to the Academy Awards. Winning a Globe is a critical component in shaping the conversation around which films, performances, and filmmakers are likely to be successful during the award season, and winners generate momentum and increase buzz around the likelihood of an impending Oscar. While it’s no guarantee that Globe winners will go on to win Oscars, it’s not unusual to see Oscar nominations reflect the previous Golden Globe wins. This year is no exception.

Starting with the category of Best Motion Picture, which incorporates both comedy and drama at the Academy Awards, the honors at this year’s Globes (which separates drama and comedy into two sections) went to the Steven Spielberg biopic The Fabelmans for Best Drama, and Best Picture Musical or Comedy was awarded to the Irish tragicomedy, The Banshees of Inisherin. Both films compete this year for the highly coveted Best Picture Oscar prize.

The Golden Globe’s Best Director award this year was awarded to Steven Spielberg for The Fabelman’s. He is a favorite to win at the Oscars alongside his Golden Globe-nominated competitors Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Daniel Kwan, and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Other nominated directors in this category are Todd Field (TÁR) and Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness).

In the Best Actor/Actress category, The Golden Globe was awarded to Austin Butler for his performance in the titular role in the Elvis biopic, while Australia’s Cate Blanchett claimed the Globe for Best Actress for her complex role as conductor Lydia Tár in the eponymously named movie, TÁR. Both actors are the favorites to win at the Academy Awards. At the Golden Globes, in the categories Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy went to Colin Farrell for his performance in The Banshees of Inisherin and the Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy was claimed by Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Both winners are also nominated in their respective Oscar categories.

In the Best Supporting Actress category at this year’s Academy Awards, it is heavily predicted that either Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once) or Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) will take home the trophy. At the Golden Globes this year, Bassett won over Jamie Lee Curtis. And in the Best Supporting Actor category, a teary-eyed Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) took home the award and could follow suit at the Oscars.

Best Screenplay was awarded to Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) at the Golden Globes, who is also nominated for an Oscar in the same category. As for Best Non-English Film, the Golden Globe was presented to Argentina, 1985, a favorite to win at the Oscars.

The Best Score at the Golden Globes was awarded to Justin Hurwitz for Babylon, also nominated at the upcoming Academy Awards, and Best Original Song at the Globes went to RRR for Naatu Naatu sung by Kala Bhairava and Rahul Sipligunj, and lyrics by Chandrabose. Naatu Naatu also happens to be the front-runner to take home the Oscar.

While award shows can be unpredictable, we will soon see the results March 12.